“What would make someone think coal might be the “go to” fuel?” The most striking aspect of the RCP8.5 scenario is how much it emphasizes coal. “This RCP8.5 thread has been good at showing that the audience that climate scientists communicate with is rather different to the audience that energy system scientists communicate with.Ĭlimate modelers: RCP8.5 is useful & shows extremes” This back-and-forth is described by energy analyst Glen Peters: The discussion is refreshing in that full-fledged climate change skeptics aren’t actively participating, but that is likely because the arguments are over equally negative economic outcomes – in other words, what the argument is over concerns the likely balance between the downward growth trend resulting from fossil fuel depletion (and possible demand slowdown) and any increase in climate sensitivity resulting from the uncertainty in climate models. This started a tweetstorm that has been going on for over a week now, and that has generally pitted climate change activists against energy analysts. Climate change is scary enough, we don’t need ghost stories.” But the reality is that it coal power is peaking already. They assume a vast increase in coal use in the absence of more international cooperation on climate.
“Here’s why I reject scare stories based on RCP 8.5 and SSP5. When challenged on this assertion, he rationalized his claim as follows: Recently an energy analyst named Michael Liebreich challenged this assumption in the context of the possibility of greater fossil fuel depletion than is currently mapped out in the IPCC, calling the RCP8.5 estimate “bollox” in a tweet. In other words, RCP8.5 tracks a growth path in fossil fuels that is extrapolated from the current economic growth rate and largely dead-reckoned FF production increases. That has worked out as describing an extreme emission scenario IF society did not take corrective action in reducing emissions. Historically, the “business-as-usual” pathway was declared to be RCP8.5. In one of the IPCC sections, projections of CO2 emissions from fossil fuel usage are made in the context of several scenarios, which are referred to as Representation Concentration Pathways (RCP). The climate change scientific consensus is summarized via the annual IPCC documents.
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